Indian equities commenced the trading session on a weaker note, pressured by rising crude oil costs and persistent selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors. The Nifty 50 began the day down by 76.75 points at 22,543.70 compared to its prior close, whereas the Bank Nifty opened lower by 50 points at 54,583.05. Meanwhile, the Sensex dropped 287.4 points at the opening bell, starting at 72,728.55.
Despite the dip in benchmarks, broader market gauges fared better. The Nifty Midcap index finished positive, and the Nifty Smallcap index advanced by 0.3%. Thursday saw the Indian rupee open at Rs. 95.95 against the US dollar, slipping from Wednesday’s finish of Rs. 95.82.
September 30 marked the fifth straight session where foreign institutional investors stayed net sellers, dumping equities valued at upwards of Rs. 10,000 crore. Conversely, domestic institutional investors offered a cushion, purchasing equities amounting to Rs. 11,271 crore during the same trading period.
Sensex Outlook
The Sensex began at 72,728.55, moving between an intraday peak of 73,062.23 and a trough of 72,366.44. Following a consistent climb during the day, the index encountered heavy selling close to the 73,000 threshold, erasing most of its earlier gains to finish nearly flat.
According to Sachin Gupta, Vice President of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, the Sensex maintains a sideways-to-bearish stance. He noted that 72,000-72,200 serves as a vital downside floor, while 72,700-73,000 functions as the primary resistance. A clear breakthrough past 73,000 might bolster market sentiment, whereas a drop under 72,000 could prolong the current downward trend.
Nifty 50 Outlook
Thursday’s session saw the Nifty 50 print an inverted hammer candle—characterized by a compact body and an extended upper shadow—signaling selling momentum near the 22,800 threshold after the index failed to hold onto its intraday gains.
Short-term sentiment for the Nifty leans bearish, and further downward movement could pull the index down toward the crucial support area of 22,400.
Analyst commentary from Bajaj Broking Research indicates, “A move above Thursday’s high of 22,810 will signal a pullback towards the 23,000 levels. However, for a meaningful trend reversal, the index would require forming a sustained Higher High-Higher Low structure and reclaiming the 23,000-23,100 level. A sustained move above 23,100 could signal a pause in the ongoing downtrend.”
Market participants will likely watch 22,810 on the resistance side and 22,400 on the support side. Sustaining momentum above 22,810 may pave the way to 23,000, whereas persistent weakness will likely draw attention to the 22,400 support area.
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Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty charted a bullish candle marked by a higher high and higher low. Bajaj Broking Research noted, “Going ahead, a pullback above Thursday’s high of 55,135 will signal an extension of the pullback towards 55,600 and 56,000 levels in the coming sessions, being the recent breakdown area. Failure to move above Thursday’s high will signal some consolidation in the range of 53,500-55,100 levels in the coming sessions ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome during next week.”
Looking downward, the Bank Nifty possesses short-term support inside the 53,500-53,000 range. This band combines earlier significant lows alongside the projected impact of the latest range breakdown from 58,500 down to 56,000.
