Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gathering—taking place from October 5 to 7—Indian equities commenced the session in positive territory. The Nifty 50 advanced 110.45 points to open at 22,532.40 over its previous close, while the Bank Nifty began the day at 54,840.65, marking a 389.9-point gain. Simultaneously, the Sensex rose 431.25 points to start at 72,340.95.
Meanwhile, the wider market lagged behind as the Nifty Midcap index dropped over 1% and the Nifty Smallcap index shed nearly 1%. Additionally, the Indian rupee strengthened by 10 paise on Monday to open at Rs. 96.22 per dollar, compared to Thursday’s close of Rs. 96.32.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) extended their sell-off in domestic equities on October 1 by offloading a net Rs. 9,484.22 crore, whereas domestic institutional investors (DIIs) acted as robust net buyers, purchasing Rs. 10,041.84 crore worth of shares.
Sensex Outlook
From a technical standpoint, the Sensex printed a long bearish candle on its weekly chart. Intraday charts displayed a continuation of lower highs and lower lows, pointing to an overwhelmingly negative bias.
“We believe the market’s short-term texture is weak but oversold. Therefore, the possibility of a pullback rally from current levels cannot be ruled out. On the downside, 71,300 is a key support zone, while 72,200 is an immediate resistance level. A move above 72,200 could extend the pullback to 73,000-73,200. Conversely, a break below 71,300 could accelerate selling pressure and push the market down to 71,000-70,700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty 50 Outlook
Last week saw the Nifty 50 drop 3.11%. It continues to trade below its 21-day, 55-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, signaling persistent weakness as recovery rallies continue to attract selling.
“On the downside, 22,250 is the immediate support, a sustained break below 22,250 could intensify selling pressure and open the way towards 22,000. On the upside, 22,700 is the key resistance zone. Any rebound towards this area is likely to face selling pressure, keeping the sell-on-rise strategy intact,” said Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd.
The 22,250 mark will stay pivotal as a support floor. A decisive drop under this threshold could draw attention toward 22,000, whereas 22,700 persists as the primary resistance ceiling to monitor.
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Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty likewise faced downward pressure, stretching its losing run to six straight weeks. The index retreated about 2% and persists in trading under its major moving averages.
54,000 serves as the immediate support level, with a breach risking a descent to 53,500. Conversely, the 55,000-55,100 band functions as the primary resistance zone. Market participants will closely monitor the upcoming RBI policy verdict and the resulting market response for directional clues.
