The Indian equities market experienced a flat opening following the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to increase its key policy rate for the initial time in almost four years. The Nifty 50 began the session 4 points, or 0.02%, lower at 22,599.05 compared to the previous close, whereas Bank Nifty commenced trading at 55,042.90, slipping by 12.95 points. Meanwhile, the Sensex moved up by 29.3 points to reach 72,668.
Performance across broader indices was mixed, as the Nifty Midcap index declined by 0.6% alongside a 0.3% gain for the smallcap index. On Thursday, the Indian rupee opened stronger at Rs. 96.71 against the dollar, improving from the Wednesday close of Rs. 96.77.
As per NSE data from Wednesday, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded Indian shares totaling Rs. 6,121.40 crore, whereas Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made net purchases amounting to Rs. 4,596.60 crore.
Sensex Outlook
The Sensex stayed under pressure, unable to hold above the 73,000 threshold, which prolonged the cautious sentiment across the market.
“Looking ahead, the Sensex continues to trade sideways, with the 72,000-72,300 support zone crucial for maintaining stability. A decisive move above 73,000-73,200 could strengthen buying interest and open the way for further recovery, while a sustained break below 72,000 may revive the bearish momentum. For now, the index remains caught between strong Put support and Call resistance, suggesting that traders should wait for a clear breakout or breakdown before taking positions,” stated Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
Nifty 50 Outlook
Following a modest recovery over the preceding couple of sessions, the Nifty 50 failed to maintain its peak levels and declined following the RBI’s announcement of a 25bps rate hike during its MPC meeting.
A bearish candle took shape on the daily chart. The Nifty 50 appears to have pulled back after approaching immediate resistance near the 22,800 mark, suggesting a potential new lower top forming around Tuesday’s high of 22,776. That said, a definitive lower top will require sharp follow-through selling during the upcoming session.
Additional downward movement could encounter support near 22,400 followed by 22,200. Conversely, any rebound is likely to meet resistance around 22,800 and subsequently at 23,100 in the near future.
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Bank Nifty Outlook
Trading continues below significant short- and long-term moving averages for Bank Nifty, pointing to a continuing cautious broader trend. At present, momentum indicators remain largely neutral, signaling a period of consolidation instead of a clear directional movement.
“Going forward, the 20-day EMA zone of 55,500-55,600 is likely to act as an important resistance area. On the downside, the 54,500-54,400 zone remains a crucial support band. A decisive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support is likely to trigger a meaningful trending move in the index,” remarked Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
