As Bitcoin recovers from its 2026 downturn, evidence mounts that a fresh bull market is underway. This latest cycle points to a possible shift away from the massive surges and crashes that characterized the cryptocurrency’s first decade.
Bitcoin’s Trend Turns Positive
A crucial indicator is the 50-week simple moving average, which historically helps signal major reversals. In prior bear markets, Bitcoin routinely struggled below this benchmark prior to staging sustained comebacks in 2015, 2019, and 2023.
After crossing back above the 50-week SMA—then near USD 78,800—Bitcoin logged a weekly close of roughly USD 81,200 on September 20. It subsequently finished near USD 84,456 on September 27 and hovered around USD 86,500 by October 5.
On-chain momentum also strengthened. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio climbed above its 365-day average in September, echoing similar shifts from 2019 and 2023. The MVRV metric contrasts Bitcoin’s market value against its realized value.
Bitcoin’s Drawdowns are Shrinking
The most recent bear market proved milder than past cycles. BTC dropped from USD 124,824 in October 2025 to USD 58,525 on June 30, 2026, marking a drawdown of roughly 53%. By comparison, cycle-ending drops reached 84.5% in 2013-2015, 83.8% in 2017-2018, and 76.7% in 2021-2022.
Gains are also moderating. Bitcoin’s trough-to-peak growth shrank from roughly 112 times during the 2015-2017 cycle down to 21 times in the next cycle, and roughly eight times between November 2022 and October 2025.
Unlike the bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin managed to stay above its realized price throughout the most recent downturn.
Long-Term Ownership Provides Support
Coins held for over 155 days reached approximately 16.64 million BTC in September, representing about 83% of the entire supply.
As of October 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs held roughly 1.3 million BTC. Meanwhile, public companies held about 1.29 million BTC, accounting for roughly 6.4% of the circulating supply.
Combined, these two segments command about 13% of all circulating Bitcoin. This demonstrates that institutional investors maintain their positions even amid steep market corrections, which can help cut down on forced selling and curb overall volatility.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Ending?
Bitcoin’s peak in October 2025 arrived roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, aligning closely with past cycle timelines. The scale of the movement is what changed.
Assuming June marked the bottom, the latest bear market lasted about eight months, shorter than the 12 to 13 months seen in prior downturns. With smaller upside multiples, shallower losses, and potentially briefer bear phases, Bitcoin’s cycles appear to be softening.
Final Thoughts
Driven by strengthening technical and on-chain metrics, Bitcoin seems to have entered another bullish phase. While the four-year cycle persists, its impact may be slowly diminishing. Growing participation from institutional and long-term holders could foster more resilient rallies alongside less severe market corrections.
Also Read: Bitcoin Miners Shift Power to AI, Sidelining USD 1.5B in Mining Equipment
FAQs:
1. Has Bitcoin entered a new bull market in 2026?
Technical and on-chain measures increasingly point toward a bullish shift, including Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-week SMA. Nevertheless, future price action will dictate whether this recovery blossoms into a full-fledged bull market.
2. Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle over?
The four-year pattern has not vanished entirely, given that the October 2025 peak roughly tracked historical post-halving schedules. However, smaller gains and milder losses hint that its grip on the market may be loosening.
3. How large was Bitcoin’s latest bear-market decline?
Bitcoin slid from USD 124,824 in October 2025 to USD 58,525 on June 30, 2026. This amounted to a roughly 53% drop, which is significantly smaller than previous cycle-ending crashes.
4. How are institutional investors affecting Bitcoin’s market cycle?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies collectively hold about 13% of circulating Bitcoin. Consistent institutional backing could restrict available supply and potentially soften upcoming downturns.
5. What indicators suggest Bitcoin’s market trend has improved?
Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average, and its MVRV ratio rose above its 365-day average in September. Both metrics have historically signaled strengthening long-term market momentum.
