On Friday, October 2, Bitcoin climbed 3% to reach USD 86,650.40, building on a strong start to the month as market participants looked at historical monthly patterns and waited for U.S. employment figures. The digital asset also advanced 2.6% over the week, putting it on track for its third straight weekly gain. Across the wider crypto market, prices ticked upward, though general hesitation ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release kept advances in check.
The latest advance followed a robust September for Bitcoin, during which the cryptocurrency rose 6.4% and wiped out a significant portion of its losses from earlier in 2026. This pushed Bitcoin’s streak of consecutive monthly gains to three, even though the asset remains down roughly 1% for the year.
Bitcoin Starts October Strong
Historically, October has frequently brought gains for Bitcoin, giving rise to the market moniker “Uptober.” Bitcoin finished in the green during 10 out of the prior 15 Octobers, generating an average increase of 27.4% in those positive months.
By contrast, Octobers that ended in the red saw an average drop of 13%. Even so, past performance serves as background rather than a guarantee for the current month, and October 2025 demonstrated how rapidly market dynamics can shift.
At the beginning of October 2025, Bitcoin hit an all-time high before sliding toward the end of the month. Pressures from U.S. tariff threats and anxieties regarding artificial intelligence spurred a broader retreat from crypto assets.
As that asset rotation persisted, Bitcoin subsequently dropped to a low of USD 58,000 during 2026. Yet, the cryptocurrency staged a comeback over the past three months, moving into October near the USD 86,000 mark.
Bitcoin ETFs See Strong Inflows
Data from SoSoValue shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in USD 2.65 billion in net inflows throughout September, marking their second-highest monthly influx since October 2025.
While September flows fell short of the USD 3.52 billion gathered in August, they remained considerably higher than figures seen through much of the preceding year. This momentum carried forward as October got underway.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs collected an additional USD 102.7 million on October 1. Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, noted that these inflows point to persistent institutional appetite throughout the recovery period.
John also connected the steady demand for ETFs to an improving market outlook as the fourth quarter begins. Bitcoin’s recent price recovery has unfolded alongside these institutional investments following its dip to USD 58,000 earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs brought in USD 832.43 million in September inflows, representing their second-largest monthly total since August 2025, though still below August’s USD 1.85 billion. On October 1, Ether ETFs experienced USD 55.4 million in outflows.
Payrolls, Yields Keep Markets Cautious
Focus now centers on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls release, which comes as financial markets evaluate the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve following the rate increase in September.
Overnight, Federal Reserve officials offered conflicting viewpoints, with some favoring further tightening and others seeing no immediate necessity to escalate monetary policy. Employment and inflation continue to anchor the Fed’s decisions on rates.
A strong payrolls report could grant the Federal Reserve greater latitude to implement rate hikes. Because elevated borrowing expenses generally create a harsher environment for risk assets, U.S. Treasury yields also experienced sharp increases during the week.
At the same time, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran introduced another layer of risk for markets. Consequently, Bitcoin’s capacity to sustain its October recovery will rely on interest rate forecasts as well as broader geopolitical conditions.
Prior to the employment figures, other digital currencies also posted gains. Ether increased 0.4% to USD 2,728.87, XRP rose 0.9%, Solana advanced 2.9%, Cardano went up 0.5%, and BNB climbed 0.9%.
Conversely, the TRUMP memecoin moved downward, losing 2.6%. This pullback came after the token saw sharp spikes in the previous session, prompted by its operator’s announcement of another dinner with U.S. President Donald Trump for top token holders.
Conclusion
Bitcoin commenced October trading above USD 86,000, backed by three consecutive months of upward movement and steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Nonetheless, U.S. payroll figures, rising Treasury yields, Federal Reserve rate projections, and U.S.-Iran frictions continue to serve as critical elements influencing the cryptocurrency market.
