According to statewide figures from Florida Realtors, pending sales for Florida townhouses and condos increased for the thirteenth month in a row in August. Meanwhile, inventory dropped 11.5% compared to the previous year, and the median price edged up nearly 3% to just under $298,000. These figures do not reflect a market in freefall, even though a freefall remains the predominant narrative among buyers. Somewhere between standard news headlines and closing tables, Florida’s condo market appears to be establishing its floor.
Robert Balzebre, a Miami investor who launched his career by purchasing discounted, aging South Beach properties, is familiar with the disconnect between public perception and financial realities. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, he completed six Art Deco conversions while conventional opinions still viewed older properties as liabilities, and the market eventually validated those investments years later.
“I’m always looking for the next project,” Balzebre said. “Sometimes it might be a renovation of a historic building, something that just hasn’t come to be yet.”
The Consensus Everyone Repeats
The pessimistic outlook gained traction for valid reasons. Following the Surfside condo collapse, new reserve mandates and milestone inspections imposed special assessments reaching six figures per unit on older properties. According to estimates by Homeinc, values in certain aging towers dropped 20% to 40%, while more than 1,400 Florida buildings were placed on Fannie Mae’s ineligible-financing list. University of Miami economist Indraneel Chakraborty pointed out to Local 10 that housing affordability continues to decline as interest rates rise, a warning that gained additional relevance in September’s rate environment.
None of those assessments were incorrect, which is why the prevailing consensus became so rigid. A narrative founded on actual events frequently outlasts the events themselves.
What the Data Says Now
Contrasting with that widespread consensus, recent metrics indicate a different trend:
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Thirteen straight months of rising pending sales for Florida condos and townhouses, marking the longest streak in either category
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Inventory down 11.5% year over year, which runs counter to the oversupply typically seen in a collapsing market
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Median prices up nearly 3% across the state, holding steady despite September’s elevated interest rates
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Mid-market growth returning, highlighted by a 12% year-over-year increase in July condo sales within the $400,000 to $500,000 range, according to Local 10
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Luxury absorption accelerating, with the greater Miami area reporting a 25.9% first-quarter increase in $2 million-plus condo sales
Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors, views these statistics as signs of stabilization. He points out that sales remain steady, inventory keeps tightening, and the available data shows no indication of the market shifting toward a radically different direction.
The underlying trend becomes even clearer when compared to single-family homes. Closed sales for single-family houses dropped 1.5% in August, and that category’s streak of twelve consecutive months of pending sales growth came to an end, whereas condos extended their streak to thirteen months. The property category widely dismissed as troubled is currently outperforming the one traditionally viewed as safe, at least according to the metric used to forecast future closings.
Why a Floor Forms Where It Does
While special assessments are severe, they are also finite. A building that finishes its milestone inspection, properly funds its reserves, and covers necessary repairs emerges as a known entity—structurally certified and valued without the steep discounts required by uncertainty. Buyers are increasingly differentiating between these properties and buildings still avoiding engineering evaluations, resulting in a single “condo crisis” splitting into two markets with two prices.
Seller turnover is also helping to accelerate repricing. Some owners who were unable or unwilling to handle substantial assessments have already exited the market, which has aided in adjusting valuations for that risk. Much of the downward pricing trend seen throughout 2024 and 2025 stemmed from transactions within this group. Left behind is cleaner inventory, reduced supply, and a pool of buyers who spent two years being advised to stay on the sidelines.
Financing hurdles continue to restrict access, and their ongoing presence explains why prices stabilized rather than surged. As documented by the Miami Herald last fall, only 0.9% of South Florida buildings hold FHA approval, and limited-review condo purchases in the state require a 25% down payment compared to 10% nationwide. A recovery that must navigate these obstacles is inherently driven by cash and equity, making it slower than a credit-fueled expansion and much harder to reverse.
“I don’t try to call the floor in a market. I look at whether the location and building is sound, whether the operations can carry it, and whether I’d want to own it in twenty years,” Balzebre said. “When those answers are yes, the cycle takes care of itself.”
What Would Prove the Floor Wrong
A realistic assessment must account for potential risks. An inventory reversing into growth over multiple consecutive months would indicate an ongoing influx of discounted sellers, while a fresh surge in carrying costs would revive the challenges that initiated the downturn. A secondary wave of assessment surprises represents the biggest threat, given that thousands of buildings have yet to finish their milestone reviews and some may uncover costly structural issues once they do.
Monetary policy introduces an additional challenge. The Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September reinforced an already elevated interest rate climate, pushing 30-year mortgage rates above 7%. Because the mid-market segment experiencing the earliest recovery is also the most reliant on financing, sustained pressure from interest rates would put the 12% rebound in the $400,000 tier to a rigorous test.
The streak of pending sales serves as the primary indicator to watch. A sudden halt to thirteen months of gains would suggest the recovery was built on borrowed rather than genuine demand, a distinction that influences all other market dynamics.
Owning Through the Cycle
Balzebre’s track record emphasizes consistency in holding assets rather than attempting to time market fluctuations. Properties like The Arcadia, The Maritime, and The Santana were acquired when South Beach’s old buildings faced the same reputational skepticism that inspection-era condos encounter today. Each conversion succeeded based on the actual qualities of the structures rather than prevailing market assumptions. He has maintained this disciplined approach ever since, retaining the properties he restores rather than immediately flipping them.
Balzebre does not claim to know where the market bottom lies, and his strategy does not depend on identifying it. A market floor can only be recognized in hindsight, which is why long-term owners focus on a more reliable question: whether the building, its operational health, and its capital structure can endure whatever the economic cycle brings next. The debate surrounding the market floor will ultimately be resolved by the data, and owners who prioritized quality over short-term momentum can feel secure with any outcome.
