US stock futures hovered near the flatline on Monday, October 12, as market participants prepared for upcoming inflation figures and major bank earnings reports. Meanwhile, oil prices bounced back from initial losses due to fresh conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding a proposed energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Dow and S&P 500 Futures Rise While Nasdaq Slips
Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed slight gains in premarket trading on Monday. By approximately 7:12 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 30 points (0.06%), and S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.03%. Conversely, Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.23% as traders weighed rising energy expenses against corporate earnings forecasts.
Wall Street kicked off the week following upward movement across the three main indexes. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 secured their second positive week out of the last three, while the Nasdaq Composite built on a four-week winning streak. Technology stocks drove this momentum, even amid persistent worries regarding elevated borrowing costs and high valuations.
Monday additionally marked the fourth anniversary of the ongoing US stock market bull run. Nonetheless, these gains have remained largely concentrated among major tech firms. While the S&P 500 has risen roughly 14% this year, over 200 constituents within the index have posted losses.
Oil Prices Rebound as Middle East Tensions Continue
Crude prices reversed earlier declines on Monday as traders monitored geopolitical events. Brent crude futures climbed past USD 106 per barrel to touch a two-week high. At the same time, US West Texas Intermediate crude hovered around USD 92.65 per barrel, marking a roughly 0.9% increase during early trading.
This rebound followed lethal strikes against Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend. President Donald Trump also mentioned that Washington was weighing participation alongside Saudi Arabia in military operations directed at Yemen’s Houthis. However, with no official choice finalized, traders remained uncertain about the region’s trajectory.
In a separate development, Trump declared what he termed an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, stating both nations agreed to halt strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later cast doubt on the arrangement’s efficacy, pointing out that Russian attacks had persisted.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, voiced skepticism regarding whether the proposed accord would successfully lower energy costs.
“Any hope that Trump’s deal with Putin might help bring down prices has been negated by the flare-up in the Houthi conflict,” Beauchamp said.
Big Bank Earnings Set to Begin Tuesday
The third-quarter earnings cycle picks up speed on Tuesday, October 13, with reports scheduled from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are also slated to report later in the week. Investors will closely review lending metrics, trading revenues, and the impact of higher interest rates on both consumers and corporate borrowers. JPMorgan’s results are slated for release at 7 a.m. ET.
Based on FactSet’s October 9 earnings review, analysts anticipate a 29.6% year-over-year profit increase for S&P 500 companies. Such a result would represent the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%. Insights from banking leaders will shed further light on consumer demand, credit health, and operational expenditures as firms contend with higher fuel costs.
Inflation Reports and Federal Reserve Outlook in Focus
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the September consumer price index is slated for release on Wednesday, October 14, with the producer price index following on Thursday, October 15. Economists predict headline consumer inflation of roughly 3.7% on an annual basis, with core inflation—which strips out food and energy—projected near 2.5%. Retail sales figures are also anticipated throughout the week.
Market participants will evaluate these reports to gauge the Federal Reserve‘s upcoming interest-rate path. Futures markets priced in an approximate 19% chance of a rate hike in October. The US Treasury market remained closed Monday for Columbus Day, following multi-decade highs reached by long-term yields earlier in the month.
Additionally, fewer than half of S&P 500 companies are currently trading above their 200-day moving averages, underscoring the uneven underlying strength beneath the index’s headline gains.
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