Tesla shares climbed 0.4% overnight into Tuesday, building on a gain of more than 2% on Monday that brought the stock to $378.73. Market participants centered their attention on third-quarter deliveries, rumors of a SpaceX merger, and the company’s expanding artificial intelligence initiatives.
Baird kept its Outperform rating alongside a $475 price target. This projection indicates roughly 25% upside compared to Monday’s closing price.
Meanwhile, Tesla handed over 486,532 vehicles to customers during the third quarter. This total exceeded certain analyst projections, giving optimistic investors another metric to evaluate the firm’s short-term earnings trajectory.
SpaceX Merger Talk Adds Another Tesla Catalyst
According to Baird, recent market focus has homed in on the Cybercab rollout, robotaxi scaling, and chatter regarding a potential integration with SpaceX. The firm anticipates that discussions about a merger will continue as a prominent near-term theme.
Tesla delivered 478,237 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles over the course of the quarter. The automaker additionally handed over 8,295 units from its alternative vehicle lineups.
Production hit 464,391 autos, meaning delivery numbers surpassed quarterly manufacturing output. Energy-storage deployments reached 13.7 gigawatt-hours in the same timeframe.
Even so, overall deliveries dipped roughly 2% year-over-year. The prior year’s period had received a boost from consumers purchasing vehicles ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. electric vehicle tax credit.
Baird noted that shipments of the Model 3 and Model Y propelled the quarterly beat. Conversely, deliveries for Tesla’s other vehicle models dropped and missed consensus estimates.
Deployments of energy-storage systems also fell short of expectations. Nevertheless, Baird characterized this segment as a bright spot after deployments rose 10% compared to twelve months prior.
Tesla is scheduled to release its quarterly financial results after the market closes on October 21, providing investors with fresh insights into profit margins, shipments, and wider technology roadmaps.
Delivery Beat Lift Near-Term Earnings Debate
Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black stated that stronger vehicle deliveries could fuel additional stock gains if the upward trend persists.
Black contrasted Tesla’s 487,000 deliveries against a projection of 462,000. He then annualized the 25,000-vehicle variance to compute an estimated $0.15 boost in adjusted annual earnings per share.
Applying that calculation, Black estimated that the earnings bump could add approximately $32 per share to Tesla’s overall valuation. Tesla shares had advanced roughly $23 apiece since Friday morning.
This math poses a vital question: can robust vehicle deliveries sustain Tesla stock as investors increasingly value the business based on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving systems?
Other analysts adopt a more conservative stance. Truist maintained a Hold rating alongside a $370 price target, signaling slight downside relative to Monday’s close.
Truist pointed out that the delivery update contained no new details concerning Tesla’s AI ventures or upcoming vehicle models. Instead, the firm maintains its primary focus on Full Self-Driving and the Optimus humanoid robot.
The firm views advancements in AI as far more critical than vehicle shipments when it comes to Tesla’s long-term cash flow generation and equity value. Furthermore, Truist lowered its 2027 earnings forecast by one cent to $1.97 per share.
Read More: Tesla Share Price: Current Stock Price, TSLA Trends, and Key Factors
Wall Street Targets Show Wide Tesla Divide
HSBC bumped its price target on Tesla to $157 from $125 while reiterating a Reduce rating. The revised target still points to steep downside from present trading levels.
The bank observed that quarterly output trailed deliveries by approximately 23,000 autos. HSBC suggested this gap might signal softer future sales demand or reflect temporary summer factory closures. Energy-storage deployments also came in below HSBC’s forecasts, landing 19% under the Visible Alpha consensus and 24% beneath HSBC’s model, prompting the institution to trim its full-year deployment outlook.
Morningstar presented a much brighter valuation perspective, keeping its fair value target at $450 and labeling the stock slightly undervalued at current prices.
Its monitoring list features the robotaxi rollout, Cybercab, Full Self-Driving version 15, and Optimus. These initiatives remain central to Tesla’s evolution beyond standard auto manufacturing. The company’s semiconductor strategy also garnered attention after Elon Musk acknowledged talks involving Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company alongside Terafab, which is Tesla’s joint project with SpaceX.
Musk confirmed that conversations have taken place and hinted that a formal agreement could materialize down the road. A separate report mentioned potential avenues including factory ownership, equity investments, purchasing commitments, or utilizing TSMC’s manufacturing expertise.
Retail investor sentiment also picked up. Figures from Stocktwits indicated that mood shifted from neutral to bullish as message volumes over a 24-hour window surged 374%. Certain participants highlighted Cybercab deployment, robotaxi expansion, and AI progress as possible catalysts. At the same time, Tesla shares remain down roughly 16% on the year, lagging behind their Magnificent Seven counterparts.
Final Thoughts
Tesla shares climbed as market participants weighed stronger third-party deliveries, SpaceX merger chatter, and a mounting focus on AI and robotics. Wall Street price targets remain sharply split ahead of the October 21 earnings report, with progress on robotaxis, the Cybercab, FSD, and Optimus remaining focal points for investors.
