Following another challenging week, Bitcoin hovered around USD 83,000 on October 11. A recent CryptoQuant report identifies USD 74,500 as a potential downside marker should the selling persist. This figure is derived from past Bitcoin bull cycles instead of serving as a prediction for the cryptocurrency’s immediate path.
As investors keep an eye on large trading positions and fund withdrawals, the cryptocurrency stays under its early-October highs, and its recent recovery has not wiped out the weekly losses.
Bitcoin Drawdown Points to USD 74,500
CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D analyzed the magnitude of Bitcoin drops across past price rallies. Published on October 9, the analysis looked at five bull market cycles, finding an average pullback of 14.39% from previous peaks.
Dropping from USD 87,027 on October 5 to USD 80,404 on October 9, Bitcoin experienced a decrease of USD 6,623, amounting to roughly 7.61%. Applying the historical average drop of 14.39% to the October 5 price yields a target near USD 74,500.
Describing the level as one “which could serve as a reference point in the event of further downside,” MAC_D used conditional language, meaning the calculation does not guarantee that Bitcoin will actually hit that mark.
Past Bitcoin Cycles Show Different Losses
The study documented average pullbacks of 18.41% from 2010 to 2011 and 21.71% from 2011 to 2013. Subsequent periods registered 10.93% between 2015 and 2017 and 19.39% between 2018 and 2021, while the 2022 to 2025 timeframe saw a smaller average of 7.58%.
While Bitcoin’s 7.61% drop in October aligned closely with this recent figure, earlier cycles fluctuated significantly, with select individual drops surpassing their respective averages. Consequently, the long-term average functions as a point of comparison rather than a guaranteed support price.
These numbers highlight how corrections vary across cycles. Because prior periods experienced larger average pullbacks than the most recent cycle, the five-period mean does not apply uniformly to every market.
Drawing on this history, MAC_D proposed making incremental purchases close to USD 80,000 alongside larger buys between USD 74,000 and USD 75,000. These remarks outline a potential purchasing strategy rather than confirmed buying interest at those price points.
Bitcoin Price Stays Near USD 83,000
Early on October 11, Bitcoin changed hands at roughly USD 83,063 after dipping to USD 80,308 during the week. This put the price roughly 34% below the all-time high of USD 126,080 hit on October 6, 2025.
The trading window also marked the one-year anniversary of the October 10, 2025, crypto selloff. During that market event, Bitcoin tumbled from about USD 122,000 to USD 105,000, wiping out more than USD 19 billion in market liquidations and impacting approximately 1.6 million trading accounts.
Market leverage continues to play a role. Current positioning estimates suggest that a price rebound toward USD 85,000 could trigger roughly USD 3.3 billion in short Bitcoin liquidations, potentially generating extra buying momentum as traders exit bearish positions.
ETF Outflows Add to Market Pressure
Market data released on October 11 revealed that US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds registered over USD 700 million in net outflows throughout the week. These investment vehicles provide market participants with exposure to Bitcoin via traditional stock exchange instruments.
The weekly net outflows indicate that redemptions outpaced incoming capital during the timeframe. Even so, a single week of withdrawals does not confirm whether investors will keep redeeming shares moving forward.
Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor the USD 85,000 threshold as a near-term zone. Surpassing it could impact short positions, whereas a return of selling pressure would bring lower levels back into focus.
At present, the USD 74,500 figure remains a historical benchmark. Although Bitcoin has bounced back from its weekly trough, the calculation simply illustrates what a drop equivalent to the five-cycle average would entail.
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