On Oct. 4, Solana climbed 1.74% over a 24-hour window to reach USD 121.42, buoyed by cooler U.S. employment figures and continued net inflows for Solana exchange-traded funds. As SOL tested overhead resistance near USD 122.82, technical indicators reflected bullish momentum alongside certain overbought signals, with market watchers also pointing to USD 125 as a key threshold.
Softer jobs data supports market sentiment
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Additionally, downward revisions for July and August reduced previous employment gains by a combined 60,000 jobs. These softer figures shifted market focus toward the Federal Reserve‘s upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Matt Mena, a senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, connected the recovery in the cryptocurrency market to the weaker labor market data and lowered expectations for aggressive monetary tightening. He suggested that sluggish employment could allow the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates into 2027, framing his comments around macroeconomics rather than specific developments for Solana.
Mena additionally shared a price outlook for Solana, stating, “With momentum building, we see Ethereum breaking USD 3K toward USD 4K and Solana reclaiming USD 125 on its way to USD 140,” with currency notation adjusted. This remains an independent projection, and SOL had not yet achieved these levels at the time of reporting.
Upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index releases and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate verdict will offer additional clarity on inflation and policy trajectories, keeping both events central to market sentiment following the subdued September hiring report.
Solana ETF buying slows after September surge
On Oct. 2, U.S. spot Solana ETFs pulled in USD 1.3 million in net inflows, driven entirely by the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF. Remaining funds experienced neither inflows nor outflows during the trading day.
Figures regarding weekly accumulations varied. Data attributed to SoSoValue indicated weekly net inflows of USD 2.4 million for the week ending Oct. 2, a sharp drop from the USD 188 million recorded the prior week. Meanwhile, an alternative tracking source reported USD 0.8 million across the final five trading sessions, leaving the exact weekly sum uncertain.
According to the SoSoValue-tracked figures, inflows reached USD 12.7 million on Sept. 28 and USD 5.4 million on Sept. 29, followed by net outflows of USD 11.1 million on Sept. 30 and USD 5.9 million on Oct. 1. Friday’s positive inflow marked a rebound after two straight days of capital departures.
In a separate metric, network activity data from DefiLlama recorded USD 1.09 million in Solana transaction fees over a 24-hour span. While these fees illustrate blockchain utilization, they do not directly explain the drivers behind SOL’s daily price appreciation.
Solana approaches USD 122.82 resistance
Technical charts position USD 122.82 as the upper threshold of Solana’s immediate trading channel, with USD 118.26 acting as the lower boundary. Additional support is located at USD 120.17, alongside a recent swing low of USD 118.97.
The relative strength index sits at 65.93, staying underneath the standard 70 overbought marker. The MACD indicates positive momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) points to a neutral trend strength. Conversely, the Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) display overbought readings.
Furthermore, SOL remains above its 20-period and 50-period hourly moving averages. The projected price corridor for the subsequent two to three days spans from USD 118.26 to USD 122.82.
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