Notcoin (NOT) is currently grappling with a prolonged downtrend that has lasted for over three months, following an unsuccessful attempt to break free last month. Currently priced at $0.0083 NOT-USDT on Gate.io, the cryptocurrency’s struggles are compounded by the recent sell-off by mid-term holders (MTH), largely driven by the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov. While there are some signs that the bearish trend may be losing momentum, a clear shift to bullish sentiment would require stronger market support.
In the last few days the price of Notcoin has been attempting to recover, but the path to a sustainable uptrend is fraught with challenges. The overall market sentiment remains slightly bearish, and this is reflected in the price action of Notcoin. A significant obstacle to any potential recovery is the growing number of short-term holders (STH), who tend to sell off their assets quickly, thereby limiting upward price movement.
The Pressure from Short-Term Holders
One of the most significant challenges facing Notcoin is the influence of short-term holders. These investors, who now control 46% of the circulating supply, typically hold their assets for less than a month. Their propensity to sell at the first sign of trouble creates consistent selling pressure that makes it difficult for the price to sustain any meaningful gains.
The increase in short-term holders was particularly noticeable after August 22, when mid-term holders decided to offload a substantial portion of their holdings. This mass sell-off was triggered by news of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s detention, which sent shockwaves through the market. Within just 48 hours, more than 21 billion NOT, valued at over $176 million, changed hands as mid-term holders liquidated their positions. Short-term holders quickly absorbed this supply, increasing their dominance in the market.
Mid-term holders, who typically hold assets for one to 12 months, are considered more stable investors. They usually provide a buffer against short-term market fluctuations, but their reduced influence due to the recent sell-off has left Notcoin more vulnerable to volatility. While mid-term holders still control 53% of the supply, the growing influence of short-term holders represents a significant threat to price stability.
Bearish Momentum
Despite the challenges posed by the dominance of short-term holders, there are signs that the bearish momentum may be starting to wane. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a popular tool used to gauge market momentum, suggests that the selling pressure on Notcoin is beginning to subside. This is a positive development, as it indicates that the worst of the bearish trend may be over.
However, the weakening of bearish momentum does not necessarily mean that a bullish reversal is imminent. For Notcoin to transition from its current downtrend to a sustained uptrend, strong market support is essential. Unfortunately, the broader market conditions do not currently favor such a shift. Without significant buying interest or a positive catalyst to drive demand, the potential for a bullish breakout remains limited.
NOT Price Outlook
The price of Notcoin has been struggling to break free from a downtrend line that has been in place since June. Despite multiple attempts over the past three months to overcome this resistance, the cryptocurrency has failed to achieve a sustained breakout. The most recent attempt was thwarted by the news of Durov’s arrest, which further dampened investor sentiment.
Given the current market conditions, it appears that Notcoin may continue to trade within a narrow range for the foreseeable future. The most likely scenario is a period of sideways movement, with the price fluctuating between $0.0095 and $0.0073. This range-bound trading reflects the market’s indecision and the lack of a clear catalyst to drive the price in either direction.
A break below the lower end of this range, specifically below $0.0073, could lead to a further decline, potentially pushing Notcoin toward its all-time low of $0.0040. On the other hand, if the market sentiment improves and bullish cues emerge sooner than expected, Notcoin could flip $0.0095 into a support level. This would open the door for a potential recovery and invalidate the current consolidation thesis.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Notcoin is currently facing a challenging environment, with its price stuck under a persistent downtrend. The dominance of short-term holders poses a significant threat to any potential recovery, as their tendency to sell quickly adds to the selling pressure. While there are signs that the bearish momentum may be weakening, a clear shift to bullish sentiment would require strong market support, which is currently lacking.
The most likely outcome in the near term is continued range-bound trading, with the potential for either a further decline or a recovery depending on how market conditions evolve. Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor the situation, as the next few weeks could be critical in determining Notcoin’s future direction.
