At the start of October, Bitcoin traded near USD 85,360 as soft U.S. employment figures fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might hold off on further interest rate hikes later in the month. BTC subsequently pushed toward USD 87,000 before slipping below USD 86,000 during Monday trading sessions in Asia. This retracement left the cryptocurrency roughly USD 500 shy of an eight-month peak, keeping the resistance barrier from late September firmly in play.
The September jobs report indicated that only 29,000 payroll additions were made. That softer figure diminished the likelihood of a rate increase at the Fed meeting scheduled for October 27-28. Concurrently, Treasury yields ticked down, and global stock markets extended their upward trajectory.
Even after shedding about USD 1,000 from its peak on Sunday, Bitcoin held a 24-hour gain of 1.3%. This represented the second instance within a week that the asset attempted to breach resistance close to USD 87,400.
Bitcoin Tests USD 87,000 as Markets Await Inflation Data
Bitcoin experienced upward momentum on Sunday, carrying BTC past USD 86,000 to touch nearly USD 86,950. Bulls failed to sustain the push, leading to a subsequent dip below USD 86,000.
A parallel setup occurred the previous Wednesday, when Bitcoin reached approximately USD 85,500 on the back of milder U.S. inflation figures, only to relinquish those gains within a few hours. Securing a daily close above USD 87,000 would serve as an initial indicator that buyers can successfully challenge the late-September peak.
Attention now turns to the October 14 CPI release as a key macroeconomic catalyst. Following the Fed’s October 27-28 gathering, the October 29 PCE inflation figures will be published. Together, these reports will help shape future rate expectations.
The primary uncertainty is whether subdued employment statistics and steady investor interest can propel Bitcoin past USD 87,400, clearing a runway toward USD 90,000.
A more forceful breakout could pivot focus to the USD 95,000–USD 100,000 bracket outlined in the October outlook. Conversely, a drop in demand or renewed macroeconomic headwinds could pull the price back toward the USD 76,000–USD 80,000 zone.
Jobs Data Eases Rate Pressure While Dollar Strengthens
Bond markets reacted to Friday’s labor market data by driving the 10-year Treasury yield down by two basis points to 5.25%. Despite the reduction, the yield hovered near levels not seen since 2002.
Equities, meanwhile, maintained their ascent. On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 reached a record high, the MSCI Asia Pacific index advanced 1%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.5%.
In the energy sector, Brent crude fell 0.7% to hover around USD 101.50 a barrel following Saudi Arabia’s decision to lower prices for benchmark crude exports bound for Asia.
Conversely, the U.S. dollar strengthened. A Bloomberg dollar index climbed 0.4%, driven partly by the euro touching its lowest level since May 2025 amid speculation that Spain might call an early election.
As a result, Bitcoin must navigate a conflicting macro backdrop. Declining Treasury yields and anticipations of a Fed pause provide a tailwind for risk-on assets, whereas a rising dollar introduces a hurdle for market participants to watch.
Read More: Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin Fell as Rate Hike Odds Increased
Bitcoin Signals Caution After Sunday Rally
Short-term technical indicators also urge caution. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that over a five-week span, Bitcoin’s Sunday price action consistently reversed on Mondays. Looking at Sunday-Monday intervals between August 29 and September 28, every single pair flipped direction: Sunday gains gave way to Monday losses, while Sunday drops preceded Monday recoveries.
For instance, Bitcoin ticked up 0.50% on August 29 before dropping 0.68% the following day, and a 0.66% rise on Sunday, September 6, led to a 1.54% slide on Monday.
Conversely, Sunday pullbacks of 0.57% and 0.10% on September 13 and September 20 preceded Monday gains of 1.75% and 6.71%, respectively, though this dataset spans just five weeks and includes a negligible 0.01% gain on September 27.
Martinez also pointed to a TD Sequential sell signal appearing on Bitcoin’s four-hour timeframe. His analysis shows that the four preceding comparable signals were followed by pullbacks of 1.74%, 4.37%, 3.11%, and 1.96%.
Similar patterns emerged for Ethereum and Solana. Ethereum’s prior two comparable readings preceded drops of 5.40% and 3.31%, while Solana’s previous three signals occurred before corrections of 2.44%, 5.76%, and 5.30%.
Wider cryptocurrency trading stayed upbeat, with DOGE rising over 3% and XRP, BNB, and ZEC gaining between 1% and 2%. Ether and HYPE posted gains under 1%, whereas SOL and TRX remained largely unchanged.
Pluang’s October 5 market overview indicated that 32 out of 50 leading tokens advanced while 17 retreated. ATOM gained 3.31% to Rp31,540, DOGE climbed 3.07% to Rp1,711, and ONE dipped 3.29% to Rp43.
Ultimately, exchange-traded fund capital flows, inflation metrics, Treasury yields, and monetary policy decisions will dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory throughout October.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin kicked off October bolstered by soft labor reports and expectations of a Fed pause, though overhead resistance near USD 87,400 remains resilient. Upcoming consumer price indices, personal consumption expenditures, ETF inflows, bond yields, and the Federal Reserve’s policy choice will determine whether BTC tests USD 90,000 or drifts toward lower support levels.
